Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."

• Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.