Polls Open in Holland as Surveys Suggest Possible Second Victory for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.